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The Problem With iPhone Killers?

Posted by: on: October 26, 2009

MG Siegler (TechCrunch.com)

Here we are again. The hype leading up to a new mobile device is reaching a fever pitch. Motorola’s Droid sounds, looks, and by some accounts, is impressive. As such, everyone’s favorite superlative is being thrown out there once again: “iPhone killer.” Of course, we’ve heard this before ? maybe a dozen times. The BlackBerry Storm was the iPhone killer, the Palm Pre was the iPhone killer, the G2, etc. Not only does the iPhone still survive, it thrives. Why?
The answer is easy, but requires some explanation. Fundamentally, the problem with most iPhone killers is that they’re not actually trying to kill the iPhone. They, as devices, may think they are, but most of them are playing a different game because of the OSes they run, and the companies behind them. One way to think about it is to compare smartphones and more precisely, their OSes, to religion (which we’ve done before). This is especially apt since the nickname for the iPhone is the “Jesus Phone.”
In a religious sense, the iPhone is a monotheistic religion. Basically, its OS believes in one device. Yes, I know there is the iPod touch, as well as variations of the iPhone (original, 3G, 3GS), but these are essentially all the same device with essentially the same hardware, just boosted specs. Meanwhile, Android, Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, Symbian, etc. are all polytheists. But “pagans,” while perhaps not exactly right, is a cooler term, so let’s go with that. All of these other mobile OSes are pagans. They answer to many devices, their “gods.”
Now, I’m not saying that the pagan approach is a bad one, I’m simply saying that in trying to kill a monotheist device with a pagan OS is going to be very hard. The problem is that none of these pagan OSes have any one device that they can use to sell the masses. They may put more faith in one device at any given time (which Android is already doing with Droid), but ultimately, their allegiance lies with the many other devices under their OS umbrella as well. The pagan church (in the Android case, Google), would be unwise to play favorites because it would undermine the ultimate goal: To be on as many devices as possible.
And I think Google realizes that. While they apparently have had quite a large hand in helping with Droid, it’s Motorola and Verizon that are hyping it big time. But I think Google knows that the Droid isn’t an iPhone killer. Instead, it’s likely the best device they have so far to kill their real competitors: Symbian and especially Windows Mobile. Repeat after me: Android is trying to kill Windows Mobile, not the iPhone.
Another popular way to think about this is the PC (Windows) versus Mac history. Essentially, early on in the history of personal computing, the Mac was king. But then Microsoft came along with an OS that could run on devices from multiple manufacturers, quantity ruled the day, and the rest is history. Android, Windows Mobile, etc are often associated with taking this approach in the mobile battleground.
But things are different now. One could argue that there was a lot of other things going on inside Apple in the 1980s that led to the rise of Microsoft (and, of course, the ouster of Steve Jobs). Since then, Apple, for lack of a better phrase, has gotten its shit together (and brought Jobs back). With the iPhone ? meaning the combination of the hardware, the software, and maybe most importantly, the App Store ? Apple has created an ecosystem that is fueling itself.
Microsoft, meanwhile, has been trying the same “quantity” approach in the mobile space with Windows Mobile for years now. For a while, it was working fairly well, but that was mostly due to a lack of competition in what was still a very small market. Now, they’re bleeding market share in the space, and the future looks grim. Again, not so much because of the iPhone (which is hurting it short term), but because of Windows Mobile’s true competitor: Android.
Not only is Android open source, but it’s free. Windows Mobile, on the other hand, is still ridiculously charging manufacturers upwards of $25 to use their sub-par OS. Their strategy seems two pronged at this point: 1) Try to leverage the Windows PC brand as much as possible and convince users that Windows Mobile tied to Windows itself create the best environment for mobile. 2) Get out Windows Mobile 7, an entirely new OS, as quickly as possible.
The problem for Microsoft (again, for Microsoft, not Apple) is that Android now has real traction with manufacturers and a massive amount of devices about to hit (including Droid) should push Windows Mobile behind Android in the hearts and minds of the public. And while it’s still smaller in market share, that could change as well much sooner than Microsoft would like to admit.
Let me be clear: I think it’s pretty likely that eventually Android will even be bigger than the iPhone worldwide. Again, it’s a different game. It’s monotheist versus the pagans. It’s Mac versus PC. Even if and when Apple breaks its AT&T exclusivity in the U.S. there will still basically be only one device. Android will have dozens of devices. And even more in other parts of the world. But the iPhone will continue to survive and even thrive, just like the Mac is right now.
By offering one device, Apple is accepting a trade-off: They’re sacrificing quantity for quality. Apple has complete control over its device (and probably too much with regard to the App Store), and because of that, it can build something that melds software and hardware like none of its pagan counterparts can.
In fact, the closest one to doing this is Palm with the Pre. But the Pre is not in the iPhone’s class yet (it’s too slow), and Palm is already getting ready to release another device. And they’re talking about more after than. It’s a more confined pagan religion, but its still pagan. Developers won’t be sure which device they’re developing for, etc.
Apple could go that way too someday. Since the iPhone’s launch, there have been whispers of an “iPhone mini,” but that hasn’t happened yet. More likely in the short term is that Apple’s tablet device may run some variation of the iPhone OS, which would obviously require some changes. But in the smartphone space, there will still be the one device.
And while on the face of it, it may not seem like it, that’s compelling to a lot of people. When you’re forced to choose between dozens of devices with dozens of different specs, it can be daunting for a consumer. With the iPhone, they know what they’re getting. And developers know what they’re getting too. They know they apps will run great on the iPhone because they were able to test it on the device rather than having to buy and test it on dozens of devices.
It’s about controlling the user experience. Whether you agree or disagree with that approach, you have to admit that Apple is very good at it.
Speaking of developers, lest you think any of the pagan smartphone makers will be able to convert iPhone users en masse, there’s a huge point of faith for sticking with the iPhone: Nearly 100,000 applications and 2 billion app downloads. While many people talk about the former being a lure for new users (which it obviously, absolutely is) the 2 billion number is the key for users staying around. Plenty of people have already invested hundreds of dollars in apps which only work on the iPhone. Convincing those people to switch to a Droid or a BlackBerry is going to be difficult. Instead, when they upgrade, they’re likely to pick a device that those apps still work with: A new iPhone.
That’s why this is not about killing the iPhone. Whispers are starting again about a “Google Phone” ? that is, hardware developed (or at least entirely dictated) by Google. During the Web 2.0 Summit, Google co-founder Sergey Brin admitted that Google works more closely on some hardware for Android than others, but that’s not enough to make an iPhone killer. If Google (or Microsoft, for that matter) decides to put all of its support (and marketing support) behind one phone, let me know, then we can talk.
But supposedly, even Droid will be a series of phones. Again, the first one look great. And it could be a real killer. A Windows Mobile killer.

Here we are again. The hype leading up to a new mobile device is reaching a fever pitch. Motorola’s Droid sounds, looks, and by some accounts, is impressive. As such, everyone’s favorite superlative is being thrown out there once again: “iPhone killer.” Of course, we’ve heard this before ? maybe a dozen times. The BlackBerry Storm was the iPhone killer, the Palm Pre was the iPhone killer, the G2, etc. Not only does the iPhone still survive, it thrives. Why?

The answer is easy, but requires some explanation. Fundamentally, the problem with most iPhone killers is that they’re not actually trying to kill the iPhone. They, as devices, may think they are, but most of them are playing a different game because of the OSes they run, and the companies behind them. One way to think about it is to compare smartphones and more precisely, their OSes, to religion (which we’ve done before). This is especially apt since the nickname for the iPhone is the “Jesus Phone.”

In a religious sense, the iPhone is a monotheistic religion. Basically, its OS believes in one device. Yes, I know there is the iPod touch, as well as variations of the iPhone (original, 3G, 3GS), but these are essentially all the same device with essentially the same hardware, just boosted specs. Meanwhile, Android, Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, Symbian, etc. are all polytheists. But “pagans,” while perhaps not exactly right, is a cooler term, so let’s go with that. All of these other mobile OSes are pagans. They answer to many devices, their “gods.”

Now, I’m not saying that the pagan approach is a bad one, I’m simply saying that in trying to kill a monotheist device with a pagan OS is going to be very hard. The problem is that none of these pagan OSes have any one device that they can use to sell the masses. They may put more faith in one device at any given time (which Android is already doing with Droid), but ultimately, their allegiance lies with the many other devices under their OS umbrella as well. The pagan church (in the Android case, Google), would be unwise to play favorites because it would undermine the ultimate goal: To be on as many devices as possible.

And I think Google realizes that. While they apparently have had quite a large hand in helping with Droid, it’s Motorola and Verizon that are hyping it big time. But I think Google knows that the Droid isn’t an iPhone killer. Instead, it’s likely the best device they have so far to kill their real competitors: Symbian and especially Windows Mobile. Repeat after me: Android is trying to kill Windows Mobile, not the iPhone.

Another popular way to think about this is the PC (Windows) versus Mac history. Essentially, early on in the history of personal computing, the Mac was king. But then Microsoft came along with an OS that could run on devices from multiple manufacturers, quantity ruled the day, and the rest is history. Android, Windows Mobile, etc are often associated with taking this approach in the mobile battleground.

But things are different now. One could argue that there was a lot of other things going on inside Apple in the 1980s that led to the rise of Microsoft (and, of course, the ouster of Steve Jobs). Since then, Apple, for lack of a better phrase, has gotten its shit together (and brought Jobs back). With the iPhone ? meaning the combination of the hardware, the software, and maybe most importantly, the App Store ? Apple has created an ecosystem that is fueling itself.

Microsoft, meanwhile, has been trying the same “quantity” approach in the mobile space with Windows Mobile for years now. For a while, it was working fairly well, but that was mostly due to a lack of competition in what was still a very small market. Now, they’re bleeding market share in the space, and the future looks grim. Again, not so much because of the iPhone (which is hurting it short term), but because of Windows Mobile’s true competitor: Android.

Not only is Android open source, but it’s free. Windows Mobile, on the other hand, is still ridiculously charging manufacturers upwards of $25 to use their sub-par OS. Their strategy seems two pronged at this point: 1) Try to leverage the Windows PC brand as much as possible and convince users that Windows Mobile tied to Windows itself create the best environment for mobile. 2) Get out Windows Mobile 7, an entirely new OS, as quickly as possible.

The problem for Microsoft (again, for Microsoft, not Apple) is that Android now has real traction with manufacturers and a massive amount of devices about to hit (including Droid) should push Windows Mobile behind Android in the hearts and minds of the public. And while it’s still smaller in market share, that could change as well much sooner than Microsoft would like to admit.

Let me be clear: I think it’s pretty likely that eventually Android will even be bigger than the iPhone worldwide. Again, it’s a different game. It’s monotheist versus the pagans. It’s Mac versus PC. Even if and when Apple breaks its AT&T exclusivity in the U.S. there will still basically be only one device. Android will have dozens of devices. And even more in other parts of the world. But the iPhone will continue to survive and even thrive, just like the Mac is right now.

By offering one device, Apple is accepting a trade-off: They’re sacrificing quantity for quality. Apple has complete control over its device (and probably too much with regard to the App Store), and because of that, it can build something that melds software and hardware like none of its pagan counterparts can.

In fact, the closest one to doing this is Palm with the Pre. But the Pre is not in the iPhone’s class yet (it’s too slow), and Palm is already getting ready to release another device. And they’re talking about more after than. It’s a more confined pagan religion, but its still pagan. Developers won’t be sure which device they’re developing for, etc.

Apple could go that way too someday. Since the iPhone’s launch, there have been whispers of an “iPhone mini,” but that hasn’t happened yet. More likely in the short term is that Apple’s tablet device may run some variation of the iPhone OS, which would obviously require some changes. But in the smartphone space, there will still be the one device.

And while on the face of it, it may not seem like it, that’s compelling to a lot of people. When you’re forced to choose between dozens of devices with dozens of different specs, it can be daunting for a consumer. With the iPhone, they know what they’re getting. And developers know what they’re getting too. They know they apps will run great on the iPhone because they were able to test it on the device rather than having to buy and test it on dozens of devices.

It’s about controlling the user experience. Whether you agree or disagree with that approach, you have to admit that Apple is very good at it.

Speaking of developers, lest you think any of the pagan smartphone makers will be able to convert iPhone users en masse, there’s a huge point of faith for sticking with the iPhone: Nearly 100,000 applications and 2 billion app downloads. While many people talk about the former being a lure for new users (which it obviously, absolutely is) the 2 billion number is the key for users staying around. Plenty of people have already invested hundreds of dollars in apps which only work on the iPhone. Convincing those people to switch to a Droid or a BlackBerry is going to be difficult. Instead, when they upgrade, they’re likely to pick a device that those apps still work with: A new iPhone.

That’s why this is not about killing the iPhone. Whispers are starting again about a “Google Phone” ? that is, hardware developed (or at least entirely dictated) by Google. During the Web 2.0 Summit, Google co-founder Sergey Brin admitted that Google works more closely on some hardware for Android than others, but that’s not enough to make an iPhone killer. If Google (or Microsoft, for that matter) decides to put all of its support (and marketing support) behind one phone, let me know, then we can talk.

But supposedly, even Droid will be a series of phones. Again, the first one look great. And it could be a real killer. A Windows Mobile killer.

HTC HD2 with Android Might Come Soon

Posted by: on: October 26, 2009

HTC’s Windows Mobile powered HD2 has been in the news of late for obvious reasons. It is one of the most powerful smartphones to have ever been released – thanks to its snapdragon processor and not forgetting its humongous screen.
For those who thought it might be a very good idea to see this phone running Android, looks like your wishes are about to come true! A fresh rumor we’re hearing of is that a new device, the HTC Passion will be out on Verizon in the near future. This phone is nothing but a CDMA version of the HTC Dragon – but running Android. The sad part of this is obviously the fact that it seems to be a Verizon exclusive – at least for now.
The Passion is evidently quite similar to the Dragon and in the blurry shot that folks over at the Unlockr has managed to source, the looks are quite similar. However, before we are able to confirm that this indeed is an Android powered device, we would like to see more of such “leaked” shots with a clear view of the familiar Android interface of course!
So, for the time being, we’ll relegate this one to the “hope this phone comes out” file folder.

HTC’s Windows Mobile powered HD2 has been in the news of late for obvious reasons. It is one of the most powerful smartphones to have ever been released – thanks to its snapdragon processor and not forgetting its humongous screen.

For those who thought it might be a very good idea to see this phone running Android, looks like your wishes are about to come true! A fresh rumor we’re hearing of is that a new device, the HTC Passion will be out on Verizon in the near future. This phone is nothing but a CDMA version of the HTC Dragon – but running Android. The sad part of this is obviously the fact that it seems to be a Verizon exclusive – at least for now.

The Passion is evidently quite similar to the Dragon and in the blurry shot that folks over at the Unlockr has managed to source, the looks are quite similar. However, before we are able to confirm that this indeed is an Android powered device, we would like to see more of such “leaked” shots with a clear view of the familiar Android interface of course!

So, for the time being, we’ll relegate this one to the “hope this phone comes out” file folder.

Android spreads while Windows Mobile dwindles

Posted by: on: October 26, 2009

For quite some time in the past Windows Mobile dominated the mobile phone arena, and then along came the iPhone and took hold of the crown, dominating the mobile world and Windows Mobile has fallen behind according to an article on nytimes.
Now, Windows Mobile faces even stiffer competition along with the iPhone as more and more mobile phone manufacturers adopt Google’s Android operating system. Traditional Windows Mobile users such as Samsung, Sony Ericsson and LG are all pushing out Android based handsets.
Motorola has said goodbye to Windows Mobile in favour of Android, HTC is expected to push out a dozen Android handsets this year and even Dell chose Android for its mobile phone debut. All four major US wireless carriers have agreed to carry Android handsets, even iPhone supplier AT&T has said they will join Android next year.
So has Windows Mobile had its day, and can Android eventually snap the crown from the iPhone? Drop us a comment with your views below.

sad-vader

For quite some time in the past Windows Mobile dominated the mobile phone arena, and then along came the iPhone and took hold of the crown, dominating the mobile world and Windows Mobile has fallen behind according to an article on nytimes.

Now, Windows Mobile faces even stiffer competition along with the iPhone as more and more mobile phone manufacturers adopt Google’s Android operating system. Traditional Windows Mobile users such as Samsung, Sony Ericsson and LG are all pushing out Android based handsets.

Motorola has said goodbye to Windows Mobile in favour of Android, HTC is expected to push out a dozen Android handsets this year and even Dell chose Android for its mobile phone debut. All four major US wireless carriers have agreed to carry Android handsets, even iPhone supplier AT&T has said they will join Android next year.

So has Windows Mobile had its day, and can Android eventually snap the crown from the iPhone? Drop us a comment with your views below.

Android sporting Motorola Zeppelin gets spotted

Posted by: on: October 26, 2009

moto-droid-1-150x112

Looks like Motorola is expanding into the Android operating system arena at speed, and although the Motorola Droid isn’t out yet they have another Android offering in the making.

According to a post on androidos, the next Android from Motorola may well be the Motorola Zeppelin, a full touch mobile phone sporting a 5 megapixel camera along with dual mode dual SIM slots.

Spec wise the Zeppelin is said to pack a 3.1 inch touch screen, that 5MP camera with LED flash, HSPA capabilities, FM radio, HDMI out, GPS and Bluetooth, and two SIM cards one GSM and the other CDMA.

Browse Anonymously on Your Android Phone With Tor

Posted by: on: October 26, 2009

Many people use the open source application Tor on the desktop for anonymous browsing sessions. Thanks to a grant from the UC Berkeley Human Rights Center Mobile Challenge and the team behind The Guardian Project, now Android mobile phone owners can use Tor to browse privately on their handheld devices, too.

“We have successfully ported the native C Tor app to Android and built an Android application bundle that installs, runs and provides the glue needed to make it useful to end users…. secure, anonymous access to the web via Tor on Android is now a reality,” writes Guardian Project team member Nathan Freitas.

The Tor 0.2.2.6-alpha release uses toolchain wrapper scripts to run Tor without requiring root access. “At this point, we are pretty convinced that the performance and efficiency of the C binary is quite significantly better than the Java-based ports of Tor running within Dalvik… this translate to a better experience for the user, with no noticeable increase in battery drain or lag on the rest of the device while Tor is running in the background,” says Freitas.

Orbot, the Android app which manages installation, bundles the Tor binary, and provides the user interface is licensed under the Tor license and contains a built-in HTTP proxy.

Developers would like to get Orbot ready for a 1.0 release as soon as possible and are looking for some volunteers to lend a hand. The team also needs help modifying the privacy-focused Android browser, Shadow to make it work with Orbot’s HTTP proxy. If you want to pitch in and help, drop Freitas an email or leave a comment on his blog.

Samsung I5700 Galaxy Spica / Galaxy Lite Preview

Posted by: on: October 26, 2009

Expected Q4 2009

Very similar in specification to the existing Samsung I7500 Galaxy, the I5700 seems to be a pretty conventional Android device overall.

One interesting feature is the 800MHz processor which is much faster than most other Android devices. Processor speed is becoming increasingly important in the smartphone market, although there’s more to performance than raw megahertz.

The I5700 is a bit more interesting to look at than Samsung’s standard black slabby designs, and it looks more contemporary that the slightly retro looking Galaxy. The I5700 is available in black or white colours, and in our view the white I5700 is the best looking.

Samsung have only released partial specifications of the I5700, so we don’t know all of the phone’s features at present. We do know that it has a 3.2″ touchscreen display (presumably 320 x 480 pixels), GPS plus a digital compass, a 3.2 megapixel camera and 3G support. We don’t know if the I5700 has WiFi, but we assume that it does support 3.5G data.

The large 1500 mAh battery should provide enough power to make the I5700 useful, but Samsung rarely quote talktime in any case.. so that’s a bit of a mystery. There’s no detail on size or weight either, but the original Galaxy weighs just 119 grams, so expect the I5700 to weigh something similar.

Due out next month in Russia and presumably other countries, Samsung have given a guide price of about €320 for the I5700 which is a little cheaper than the current selling price for the Galaxy.

There’s certainly a lot of competition in this market, but the fast processor gives the Galaxy Spica a bit of an edge over most of the competition, and it might well be worth looking out for.


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